Analysis of the current status of TB transmission in China based on an age heterogeneity model.

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease transmitted through the respiratory system. China is one of the countries with a high burden of TB. Since 2004, an average of more than 800,000 cases of active TB has been reported each year in China. Analyzing the case data from 2004 to 2018, we found significant differences in TB incidence by age group. A model of TB is put forward to explore the effect of age heterogeneity on TB transmission. The nonlinear least squares method is used to obtain the key parameters in the model, and the basic reproduction number Rv = 0.8017 is calculated and the sensitivity analysis of Rv to the parameters is given. The simulation results show that reducing the number of new infections in the elderly population and increasing the recovery rate of elderly patients with the disease could significantly reduce the transmission of TB. Furthermore, the feasibility of achieving the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy in China is assessed, and we obtained that with existing TB control measures it will take another 30 years for China to reach the WHO goal to reduce 90% of the number of new cases by the year 2049. However, in theory it is feasible to reach the WHO strategic goal of ending TB by 2035 if the group contact rate in the elderly population can be reduced, though it is difficult to reduce the contact rate.

A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China.

MOTIVATIONS: Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV). Approximately 390,000 people in China die from HBV-related diseases each year. Around 86 million individuals suffer from infections of the hepatitis B virus, accounting for about 6% of the total population in the region. There are approximately 30 million chronic infections. From 2002 to 2007, China's government took part in "The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI)" initiative, which helped reduce cases of chronic HBV infections among children. However, incidences of hepatitis B remain persistently high in China. Accurately estimating the number of potential HBV infections is crucial for preventing and controlling the transmission of the hepatitis B virus. Up until now, there were no studies of potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections. METHODS: this study was based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2003 to 2021; a dynamic model was built, which included a compartment for potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections. The parameters in the model were fitted using a combination of nonlinear least-squares and genetic algorithm methods. RESULTS: the calculated reproduction number for hepatitis B virus transmission within the population is Rc = 1.741. Considering the existing vaccine inefficiency rate of 0.1, the model estimates there are 449,535 (95%CI [415,651, 483,420]) potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections, constituting 30.49% of total hepatitis B cases. Date fitting using MATLAB reveals that increasing the rate of hepatitis B vaccinations can effectively reduce the number of infections. CONCLUSIONS: the results reveal that the number of potential infectious hepatitis B virus infections is so high that the number of hepatitis B patients persistently rises in China. To better control the transmission of the hepatitis B virus, an optional prevention and control strategy is needed to increase the vaccination of different age groups, and it is necessary to help the public correctly understand the transmission of hepatitis B and ensure adequate protection.

A study on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 considering the impact of asymptomatic infection.

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To analyse and evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we establish an improved COVID-19 infectious disease dynamics model. We fit the epidemic data in the four time periods corresponding to the selected 614G, Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants and obtain the proportion of asymptomatic persons among the infected persons gradually increased and with the increase of the detection ratio, the cumulative number of cases has dropped significantly, but the decline in the proportion of asymptomatic infections is not obvious. Therefore, in view of the hidden transmission of asymptomatic infections, the cooperation between various epidemic prevention and control policies is required to effectively curb the spread of the epidemic.

An improved method of global dynamics: Analyzing the COVID-19 model with time delays and exposed infection.

Considering the transmission characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there are certain time delays in the transition from susceptible individuals to exposed individuals after contact with exposed, symptomatically infected, and asymptomatically infected individuals. A COVID-19 model with time delays and exposed infection is developed and then the global dynamics of this model is investigated by an improved method; moreover, the numerical simulations are carried out. It is shown that the COVID-19-free equilibrium T0 is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if and only if the control reproduction number Rc≤1, while T0 is unstable and the COVID-19 equilibrium T∗ is GAS if and only if Rc>1. The numerical results reveal that strengthening quarantine measures is helpful to control the COVID-19 epidemic in India. Furthermore, when Rc<1, the numbers of symptomatically infected, asymptomatically infected, and quarantined individuals eventually tend to the zero equilibrium state, and with the increase in the time delay, the three kinds of variables change faster and their peaks become larger; when Rc>1, the three kinds of variables eventually tend to the positive equilibrium state, which are oscillatory and the amplitudes of the oscillation enlarge as the value of time delay increases. The numerical results show that when Rc<1, the smaller the value of time delay, the smaller the final epidemic size. In short, the longer it takes time for susceptible individuals to transform exposed individuals, the harder COVID-19 will be controlled.

Global Stability of a Time-delayed Malaria Model with Standard Incidence Rate.

A four-dimensional delay differential equations (DDEs) model of malaria with standard incidence rate is proposed. By utilizing the limiting system of the model and Lyapunov direct method, the global stability of equilibria of the model is obtained with respect to the basic reproduction number R 0. Specifically, it shows that the disease-free equilibrium E 0 is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) for R 0 < 1, and globally attractive (GA) for R 0 = 1, while the endemic equilibrium E* is GAS and E 0 is unstable for R 0 > 1. Especially, to obtain the global stability of the equilibrium E* for R 0 > 1, the weak persistence of the model is proved by some analysis techniques.

The modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic with vaccination and isolation: a case study of Italy.

The global spread of COVID-19 has not been effectively controlled. It poses a significant threat to public health and global economic development. This paper uses a mathematical model with vaccination and isolation treatment to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. In this paper, some basic properties of the model are analyzed. The control reproduction number of the model is calculated and the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria is analyzed. The parameters of the model are obtained by fitting the number of cases that were detected as positive for the virus, dead, and recovered between January 20 and June 20, 2021, in Italy. We found that vaccination better controlled the number of symptomatic infections. A sensitivity analysis of the control reproduction number has been performed. Numerical simulations demonstrate that reducing the contact rate of the population and increasing the isolation rate of the population are effective non-pharmaceutical control measures. We found that if the isolation rate of the population is reduced, a short-term decrease in the number of isolated individuals can lead to the disease not being controlled at a later stage. The analysis and simulations in this paper may provide some helpful suggestions for preventing and controlling COVID-19.

Estimating New Cases Among Athletes During the Winter Olympics Based on a Dynamic Model - Beijing, China, February 2022.

Introduction: Since first appearing in late 2021, the Omicron variant has spread rapidly around the world. Nevertheless, the XXIV Winter Olympic Games (WOG) were held in Beijing in February 2022, which undoubtedly posed a huge challenge to domestic epidemic prevention and control. Methods: To analyze and evaluate the spread of the epidemic within the closed-loop management of the Beijing 2022 WOG, an improved dynamics model was established. Using the known dynamics parameters, the new daily cases and final members of quarantined people were predicted, and the influence of different factors on the change of the number of quarantined people was analyzed. Results: When the proportion of exposed persons being detected and the degree of admixture between the two populations varied between 0.5 and 0.9, there was little change in the daily predicted number of new cases and the final number of quarantined patients. As the initial value of the exposed among inbound personnel increased, the final size of quarantined patients increased proportionally. Discussion: From the analysis results, detecting potential virus carriers at the entry stage is the most effective way to control the spread of the epidemic within the closed-loop management of the Beijing 2022 WOG.

Effect of Non-homogeneous Mixing and Asymptomatic Individuals on Final Epidemic Size and Basic Reproduction Number in a Meta-Population Model.

To uncover the effective interventions during the pandemic period, a novel mathematical model, which incorporates separate compartments for incubation and asymptomatic individuals, has been developed in this paper. On the basis of a general mixing, final size relation and next-generation matrix are derived for a meta-population model by introducing the matrix blocking. The final size ([Formula: see text]) and the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) are no longer a simple monotonous relationship. The analytical results of heterogeneity illustrate that activity is more sensitive than the others. And the proportion of asymptomatic individuals is a key factor for final epidemic size compared to the regulatory factor. Furthermore, the impact of preferential contact level on [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] is comparatively complex. The isolation can effectively reduce the final size, which further verifies its effectiveness. When vaccination is considered, the mixing methods maybe influence the doses of vaccination used and its effective. Moreover, using the present predictive model, we can provide the valuable reference about identifying the ideal strategies to curb the pandemic disease.

Global Stability of a Mumps Transmission Model with Quarantine Measure.

In this paper, a model of mumps transmission with quarantine measure is proposed and then the control reproduction number ℛ c of the model is obtained. This model admits a unique endemic equilibrium P* if and only if R c > 1, while the disease-free equilibrium P 0 always exists. By using the technique of constructing Lyapunov functions and the generalized Lyapunov-LaSalle theorem, we first show that the equilibrium P 0 is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if R c ≤ 1; second, we prove that the equilibrium P* is GAS if R c > 1. Our results reveal that mumps can be eliminated from the community for ℛ c ≤ 1 and it will be persistent for ℛ c > 1 , and quarantine measure can also effectively control the mumps transmission.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Transmissibility of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Nanning City, China, 2001-2020.

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a single-stranded RNA virus that can weaken the body's cellular and humoral immunity and is a serious disease without specific drug management and vaccine. This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic characteristics and transmissibility of HIV. Methods: Data on HIV follow-up were collected in Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous, China. An HIV transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the transmission of HIV and estimate its transmissibility by comparing the effective reproduction number (Reff ) at different stages: the rapid growth period from January 2001 to March 2005, slow growth period from April 2005 to April 2011, and the plateau from May 2011 to December 2019 of HIV in Nanning City. Results: High-risk areas of HIV prevalence in Nanning City were mainly concentrated in suburbs. Furthermore, high-risk groups were those of older age, with lower income, and lower education levels. The Reff in each stage (rapid growth, slow growth, and plateau) were 2.74, 1.62, and 1.15, respectively, which suggests the transmissibility of HIV in Nanning City has declined and prevention and control measures have achieved significant results. Conclusion: Over the past 20 years, the HIV incidence in Nanning has remained at a relatively high level, but its development trend has been curbed. Transmissibility was reduced from 2.74 to 1.15. Therefore, the prevention and treatment measures in Nanning City have achieved significant improvement.

Asymptomatic transmission shifts epidemic dynamics.

Asymptomatic transmission of infectious diseases has been recognized recently in several epidemics or pandemics. There is a great need to incorporate asymptomatic transmissions into traditional modeling of infectious diseases and to study how asymptomatic transmissions shift epidemic dynamics. In this work, we propose a compartmental model with asymptomatic transmissions for waterborne infectious diseases. We conduct a detailed analysis and numerical study with shigellosis data. Two parameters, the proportion $p$ of asymptomatic infected individuals and the proportion $k$ of asymptomatic infectious individuals who can asymptomatically transmit diseases, play major rules in the epidemic dynamics. The basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ is a decreasing function of parameter $p$ when parameter $k$ is smaller than a critical value while $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ is an increasing function of $p$ when $k$ is greater than the critical value. $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ is an increasing function of $k$ for any value of $p$. When $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ passes through 1 as $p$ or $k$ varies, the dynamics of epidemics is shifted. If asymptomatic transmissions are not counted, $\mathscr{R}_{0}$ will be underestimated while the final size may be overestimated or underestimated. Our study provides a theoretical example for investigating other asymptomatic transmissions and useful information for public health measurements in waterborne infectious diseases.

Remarks on a variant of Lyapunov-LaSalle theorem.

The aim of this paper is to give some global stability criteria on a variant of Lyapunov-LaSalle theorem for a class of delay di erential system.